Xinhua news agency, Ji'nan, February 18, (reporter Yuan Junbao, Chen Aiping) National Bureau of statistics data released on 18 2016 January, the overall level of the national consumer price (CPI) rose 1.8%, or 0.2 percentage points higher than last month, the 3 consecutive month rebounded.
Industry experts believe that the January price increase is mainly due to rising pork, fresh vegetables, travel and other prices, with the effectiveness of measures to show steady growth, prices rose a modest upward trend is expected to get support, which will be conducive to further economic rebound.
The weather and the Spring Festival factors pulled in January CPI
National Bureau of statistics data show that in January, tobacco and food prices rose 3.6%, CPI rose about 1.07 percentage points. Among them, the price of fresh vegetables rose 14.7%, meat prices rose 10.8%, aquatic products prices rose 2.7%, has become a major factor affecting the CPI rose in January.
Analysis of the January CPI rose 0.2 percentage points QoQ to expand the city, the National Bureau of Statistics Division Senior Statistician Qiumei Yu believes that the strong cold weather affected the production and transportation of fresh vegetables, fresh fruit; winter, during the Spring Festival travel number increases, traffic and tourism prices rose significantly; the Spring Festival approaching, demand for services increased, part of prices of services rose more, have contributed to the January CPI rose. Specifically, pork, fresh vegetables, air tickets, travel fees rose 18.8%, 14.7%, 11.8%, 4.2%; part of the price of services rose higher, housekeeping services, hairdressing, beauty, clothing washing maintenance prices rose 7.4%, 5.5%, 4% and 3.1%.
Reporters recently in Shanghai, Shandong and other places to understand, since January, affected by the strong cold weather and the Spring Festival, vegetable prices rose faster, after the Spring Festival is still at a high price. The eight Ji'nan travel-ready dishes Market food business Liu Minghu said, vegetable prices during the Spring Festival compared to drop some, but overall is still in the high 13 yuan / kg, spinach, cabbage also reached 3 yuan / kg.
Shandong Shouguang agricultural products logistics park price index Center Manager Sui Yumei believes that the cause of the high price of vegetables is a vegetable production area because of experience over the years before the southern rare snow and weather, resulting in vegetable production; the two is in a new round of cold air strikes, more rain and snow weather again, the supply of vegetables.
Multiple factors provide support for stable prices
Industry experts believe that pork prices strong, some agricultural and sideline products prices continued to rise and the money supply and other factors to accelerate growth, the first quarter of this year and the first half of the overall price continued strong support.
According to the monitoring data of Ministry of agriculture, January around the national pork prices rose 1.1%, respectively, 2.7%, 1% and 1.4%, of which fourth weeks (January 25, 2016 31 days) pork week average price 24.08 yuan / kg, an increase of 31.4%. The general manager of Shandong Yucheng Hao Kang animal husbandry limited Li Daijun said, before the Spring Festival in the whole hog prices rose, rose about 1 yuan per kilogram, after the spring festival pork price fell slightly, but still in the 18.6 / kg high.
Www pig industry analyst Liu Li said that the current hog supply tense situation has not significantly improved, and the price rose after the farmers reluctant to sell the pressure bar, a continuous rise in pork price. Expected in the first quarter due to strained pig sources, pork prices will remain high, even if a slight decline, the amplitude will be relatively small".
Non food, rising prices also provide support for prices. Statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics show that in 2015 December, the national 70 large and medium-sized city of new commodity housing and second-hand housing prices continue to trend last month, the chain continued to rise slightly, the second-hand housing prices rose more than the combined average last month also expanded 0.2 percentage points.
From the PPI point of view, in January industrial producer prices (PPI) ring, a double decline narrowed year, but also conducive to the recovery of the final consumer goods prices. National statistics show that in January PPI QoQ narrowed 0.1 percentage points narrowed last month, a decline of last year narrowed by 0.6 percentage points.
In addition, the bank's chief economist Lian Ping believes that the fourth quarter of 2015, the narrow money (M1) growth rate sharply upward, 2015 10, December 11, were as high as 14%, 15.7%, 15.2%, may lead to CPI in the end of the first quarter of 2016 to the two quarter rose.
Current overall price is still at a low level
Some experts believe that moderate price increases are conducive to economic recovery, and the current overall price increase in China is still at a low level, which also provides a larger space for policy regulation.
The people's Bank of China, the national development and Reform Commission and other 8 departments recently jointly issued "on the financial support of industrial structural adjustment steady growth and increase the efficiency of a number of opinions", from various angles to strengthen the monetary and credit policy support, to create a good monetary and financial environment to support industrial restructuring and upgrading, lowering the efficiency.
Industrial Bank chief economist Lu commissar think, with the industrial growth has stabilized, is expected in the first quarter economic growth downward trend will be suspended. Recently, the people's Bank of China issued a report on the implementation of monetary policy pointed out that the fourth quarter of 2015 urban depositors survey shows that future price expectations index rose by the previous quarter by 0.3 percentage points. Shandong Academy of Social Sciences Institute of economics, said Zhang Weiguo, prices remain at 3% to 5% range, conducive to the smooth recovery of the economy.
Experts also believe that the current price increases although power has increased, but there will not be rapid rise. Lian Ping said, because no strong stimulus based monetary policy, money supply growth is difficult as the end of 2009 to early 2010 as high as more than 30%, so the rising role of CPI is relatively limited. Some experts said that prices remain modest rise in the low level, for policy regulation and reform provides a better price environment.